WSI Corporation’s updated 2009 hurricane season forecast maintains their July outlook for 10 named storms, 5 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. As of August 25, 09, there have been 3 named storms (Ana, Bill, Claudette), 1 hurricane (Bill), and 1 intense hurricane (Bill).
The forecast numbers continue from July to August because there have been no significant changes in the current El Nino event. The 2009 forecast numbers remain quite close to the long-term (1950-2008) average of 9.8 named storms, 6.0 hurricanes, and 2.5 intense hurricanes, but are significantly lower than the numbers from the relatively active seasons of the past 15 years.
After a rather late start, the Atlantic season has really kicked into gear with three storms developing over the last 10 days. Ocean temperatures in the tropical Atlantic have warmed up considerably during the past month, but this warming likely represents only a shallow surface layer and probably isn’t indicative of any substantial increase in total available energy,” said WSI seasonal forecaster Dr. Todd Crawford. “On the other hand, the El Nino event has not yet created a particularly destructive wind shear environment across the tropical Atlantic yet, and the strength of the event itself has flattened out at relatively weak levels in recent weeks. Our current forecast of 10 named storms certainly seems well within reach at this point.
Energy and agricultural traders, insurance professionals and risk managers look to WSI for accurate, timely weather information around the clock and across the globe. The next seasonal forecast update, which will include forecasts for fall and early winter temperatures, will be issued on September 23. This will be the final update on the 2009 tropical season.